Winning At Rotisserie - The GM Way

In attempting to give advice on the oft-asked question of "How To Win Fantasy/Rotisserie Leagues," the problem is that there are so many styles of play today that what is good advice for one style is bad for another. There are innumerable strategy types that have developed through the years in an effort to win. This article will deal with one playing style that has worked in traditional (4x4) Rotisserie play with keepers. (Please note: while the information here is based on a traditional 4x4 league, the info can be used and applied with modifications to any style.) Many will find the style described here to be unique or in the minority of thinking when it comes to this game, especially these days when many say not to spend over $25 or $30 for a player. The GM Way, developed by Greg Scalf, is documented below.

The Draft

Originally Greg felt the draft was at least 60% responsible for a team's success, roster maintenance about 20%, and luck the other 20%. Nowadays it is probably 80% draft, 10% roster management and 10% luck. Some teams make no transactions all year long and finish near or in the money. Some make few transactions and finish in the money or win! It all comes from the draft. In a Mixed Nuts League, Greg experimented with this concept. He did not have much time for this league, but wanted to help get it off the ground, so he drafted and did very little tinkering with the roster all year long. The team sat in second place about two thirds of the way through. Injuries eventually struck down two relievers, forcing Greg to pick up starters to meet innings requirements. However, the squad still finished in fourth place and probably had the fewest moves in the league.

With all the resources available today, one should be prepared for the draft, and most owners indeed come prepared. This has led to more competitive leagues with the championship decided on the last day by a win or save. Due to all those resources available, luck definitely plays a role. Articles by roto guru Alex Patton also attest to the fact that the more competitive a league is in terms of the skills of the players, the more luck that is involved. Regardless, the draft is the most significant part of the season. The problem is knowing which players will lead you to victory. You may not know if your draft was good or bad for some time. You might think you're in good shape if you wound up with last year's stars on your roster. You might be unhappy if you had to settle for players coming off down years. Yet sometimes those superstars disappoint, while last year's bust rebound. That is the trick in roto and fantasy ball. Sometimes it is not selecting a player who winds up underachieving that wins it for you. In any case, the draft sets the tone for your year no matter the type of player you select.

Understanding supply and demand type is essential to successful drafting. Do not follow the "never draft someone over 30" rule.(The "30" philosophy calls for never drafting a player for over thirty dollars, thus spreading spreading the risk.) Instead, narrow down, based on supply and demand, the top players and pay what you must to get them. If you are in your initial draft in a keeper league, the first draft his HUGE! If you have a poor draft and don't get the key players, you are destined to be a loser for three years until the top players become available again. Wo are those key players? Players that excel at a weak position, like shortstop, catcher, and second base. Players that can dominate a category like stolen bases or saves. Also, ace pitchers that perform well above the norm. To identify those weak positions, you can use the VAM method by Fantistics http://www.insiderbaseball.com) The Values Above Mean system compares players with "the average player." Therefore, you can compare positions to see how many "quality" players are available at each on draft day. Another way to do it is to simply take dollar values and compare them from position to position to see how many "quality" players are available, which is a Reader's Digest version of VAM.

Don't hesitate to spend much more than $30 to secure some of these players. When you draft, you also want to pick players that are predictable. So to begin the draft, target saves and stolen bases. They are more scarce than the other categories and also more predictable, although the last couple years the saves category has been more volatile, which has led to spending trends to shift even more toward hitting. Still, you would probably rather have closers you can count on and let the other guys try to find their saves during the year. In an initial draft, pay to make sure you have a top-line closer or two, and pay for a player that dominates a weak position. Currently catcher is a good example. Having a backstop on your team who knows his way around a bat is a significant plus. This will give an owner an advantage over the other teams as there is a large drop-off in production when you get to the next level of catchers. What about slugging outfieders, often the game's superstars, you may ask? No, do not pay big dollars for them. There are many outfielders that will produce excellent numbers and the drop-off is not nearly as severe as it is for catcher or the middle infield positions. Don't go out of your way to avoid those top-tier outfielders, of course. Pick them up if the price is right; just don't overpay for them like you might for a star at a scarce position.

In a keeper league, pay the price to get what you are lacking. A few years ago, Greg Scalf paid $44 for Marquis Grissom. Would you? Well, Greg won my league with Grissom at $44. He needed steals, and Grissom was the best available. This is where draft-day inflation comes into play. An owner needs to figure the league's inflation based on the effects of keepers. Inflation is figured by calculating the money available for the draft and dividing it by the value available after freeze lists are turned in (link to calculating inflation: http://www.askrotoman.com/rototouts/inflation.shtml). This will change the dollar values one should expect to pay at the draft. If you need power, then you pay to get it. Greg learned his lesson with the "30 dollar rule." He needed power one year, and the bidding for Dante Bichette got into the 40s. There was no other big power hitter left. Greg decided he could not go that high, and finished third in the league, while he probably would have won had he landed Bichette. Even excellent players who stick to the 30 dollar rule have been known to get outbid early in the draft only to find themselves with too much money left later on and having to overspend on mediocre players, or the worst sin on draft day, having money left over.

Basically, which type of player to spend on will vary from year to year in keeper leagues. If you have enough stolen bases frozen, you'll spend your money elsewhere. If I already have an All-Star shortstop, you'll spend on another position. Spending to get the players you want does leave you thin, dollar-wise, at the end of the draft. However, it creates opportunities as well.

You must do your homework. You'll find yourself drafting a lot of players at the end for a few dollars, or even just one unit or dollar. In a keeper league, this creates the foundation for being in the money regularly. By making smart choices with late-round picks you will end up with players that will be keeper bargains in the future. If you sign a pitcher at one dollar for three years when he is still unknown, and he winds up being worth around $20 each year, you'll have extra money to overspend in places where your team is weak. There are plenty of opportunities to do this in pitching, especially in today's market. Every year there are pitchers that go undrafted that have good seasons who could have been had for a single buck! Set-up men, in particular, provide plenty of potential for value gains if you can find those hidden gems who eventually earn a closer's job. Inexpensive hitting bargains can also be found if you do your homework. One year, Albert Pujols went undrafted in Tout Wars and earned $34!

A solid basic philosophy in selecting pitchers is this: secure saves, get an anchor starter, and then wait until late in the draft to fill in. Aim for three, maybe four pitchers with double-digit dollar values and two closers in the twenties, (however, lately there have been more closer roles up for grabs and closer-by-committee situations, so it may be better to find diamonds in the rough this year) to form the backbone of your staff. Round out your pitching slots with set-up men. In a 5x5 league with strikeouts, get more starters, with only set-up men with high strikeout ratios to add to the two closers.

There are plenty pitchers to pick from, so if you've done your homework, there will be quality arms you can get for less than $10. If you don't have time to do the homework for pitchers, then let the many available cheat sheets do it for you. Plan on drafting three to four players for one dollar. Select set-up men at the end of the draft, and usually one starter. Again, there are plenty pitchers to choose from, and with research, you will get some diamonds in the rough at the end of the draft. In turn, this keeps you in a cycle of obtaining good players that are undervalued and allows you to overpay for areas of weakness in keeper leagues. (Ron Shandler of Baseball HQ has taken this method of drafting pitchers one step further and developed what he first called "Shandler's Crappy Pitching Staff," which has evolved into what is now known as the LIMA plan. He consistently identifies break-out pitchers who earn far more than their price on draft day.)

The reasoning behind this is simple. You want what is predictable can be controlled. In a 4x4 league, wins are not predictable. ERA and WHIP are more predictable than wins. If you do have a bad reliever, he is likely to get replaced and will not pitch enough innings to hurt your percentage categories much. A poor choice in a starter could leave you with poor results all year, especially if he throws a lot of innings. Never choose a middle reliever/spot starter. These are the guys that are the sacrificial lambs and stay on the mound when trailing by a large margin and will take a pummeling for the team.

Drafting minor leaguers is easy, and somewhat overrated. Rarely should draft a player to keep. Instead, use the minor leaguers to help pull off trades to teams playing for the future. Never draft pitchers, especially in the expansion years. Draft stolen bases first and then power if speed is not available. Draft positions you are weak in after the draft, so that maybe a call-up can fill a weak spot. Be wary of the "expert" that touts rookies (the Peter Gammons Rule), or a manager touting his own players (the Sparky Anderson Spin Rule). Look at the numbers and see how they will help you in Rotisserie. Some of the top prospects are great fielders and show leadership. Both are not a quality of concern for Rotisserie players.

Roster Management

As mentioned before, some teams do well that make no moves an entire season. How well could they have done if they would have kept the roster up to date? Making roster moves depends on whether you must pay the league for a move. If this is the case, it is not worth it to replace a player that is only out a week. If there is no cost for transactions, then you should always make moves for players on the DL or sent to the minors. There are some exceptions. For example, at the catcher position many times there are no good backups. It may be to your advantage to leave the spot open instead of getting stats from a .190 hitting catcher.

There is no giant secret to success here. You just must stay informed. Look and see who is available and who is playing. In some cases, select the player getting the most playing time of the available free agent pool. It is always good to have a player or two on your roster that plays multiple positions as to give you flexibility in your roster management.

Trading is also part of your roster management. There are many styles of trading. However, for long-term success, there is only one style to use, and that is honesty. If you take advantage of a first-time owner, you run the risk that no one will trade with you in the future. I feel when trading, both teams must get something of value out of it as an end result. The trade can be lopsided, and still both get value out of it. A trade of an established player for a few prospects is a good trade. Both teams gain by the transaction. In this case one gains in the short term, the other in the long run.

We all have encountered the trader we don't like. The one that talks about trading, but after endless conversations never follows through. The trader that offers you no good players and wants a superstar in return. The trader that wants you to trade him one of your best players to make up for last year's trade in which a player he traded you panned out. All of these cases leave one not willing or wanting to trade with those types of traders. Very simply, show the person you want to trade with why the trade is good for them and be reasonable.

Remember, it does take a little luck. Sometimes you get the good side of it, sometimes the bad. There is a saying that there is no such thing as luck, you make your own breaks. This is also true to a degree in Rotisserie. Is it luck when you select a set-up man and he becomes the closer? No, that is doing your homework, making your own break so to speak. An elite slugger may be a no-brainer pick, but if he breaks his leg, nothing you can do about it. Flat out just bad luck.

Finally, this year finds many new managers. It also finds many teams in transition, retooling for the future. This will lead to a large turnover in players this year. What I mean by that is this. There will be open competitions for positions as a manager looks for a player to fit his style, or sees who can stick in the bigs. Therefore, many players that are starters on draft day will be released or in the minors several weeks later. This will create opportunities to get players at low dollars that, if they come through for you, could be a foundation of your team for years to come. Keep that in mind in drafting this year. Knowing this ... go an extra couple of dollars for established players that have a job sewn up and then have a few more dollars left at the end game to get those guys you think could blossom for you.

Hopefully this essay will help you to control some of that luck that is involved in Rotisserie.Remember, what has worked for one person may not work for you. It just depends on your philosophies. Regardless, contained herein are items that will hopefully help you in your quest to win your league.