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There are many different strategies when it comes to draft day. One must accept the fact that if there were a single best way to draft, we would all use it. There is debate on how much to budget on pitching and hitting. There is debate on the most you should bid on a single player. Throw all those debates out the window and simply use the laws of supply and demand. Also note that draft day strategies are affected by the type of draft: auction or serpentine; single-season, keeper or dynasty; head-to-head or roto. Each individual draft has different factors that must be taken into account. With that in mind, here are a few suggestions.
First and foremost, when compiling your draft day budget you must identify the players that stand heads and tails above the rest at a particular position. Then you pay the price to get those players. The reason behind this is simple. It gives you an advantage in a category over everyone else. To show what this means, take the catcher position as an example. There will usually only be a few catchers who produce respectable offensive stats. If you get one, you can expect solid numbers from him. Other teams will resort to the one-dollar catcher run at the end of the draft. The problem is, you will have a hard time finding a one-dollar catcher who will produce for you. Not only will a low-budget backstop not produce any numbers of significance, but you'll actually be hoping that the guy does not kill your batting average! Of course, the owners that land an All-Star catcher will also have a one-dollar choice to make sooner or later. However, they can now make that choice in a position that has a larger talent pool, like the outfield. There will be plenty of outfielders left at the end of the draft with the "high potential" label on them. (Just consider some of the OFs that could have been had for $1 in most leagues last year.) Ask yourself which player would you rather have: the one-dollar catcher or the one-dollar outfielder? For that matter, you could save the one-dollar pick for a pitcher, where quite a few $1 gems were to be found last season. Many championships are won by the late selections that come through. The outfielder or pitcher is more likely to come through than the catcher or middle infielder. Also, in keeper leagues, you may land a one-dollar keeper that could pay dividends for years to come. Again, the odds point to the outfielder or pitcher.
As far as having a set dollar amount for the draft for each position is concerned, don't do so. It can help to set some starting numbers to go by, but you have to be able to adjust as the draft goes along. It seems that each year, less and less money is spent on pitchers. In the past, owners often budgeted around 80 dollars for pitching and 180 for hitting. However, the popularity of the LIMA plan, the volatility of closers, and the injury rate of starters have led to this trend continuing to the point where an 80/20 hitting/pitching split is emerging. The current trend has many owners spending in the 200-208 range for hitting and 52-60 range for pitching.
Pitching is a volatile game. So try to take the volatility out of it. Relievers tend to be more predictable than starters, so focusing on the bullpen is one way to go. Also, at the end of the draft there are always a ton of pitchers left. Do your homework here and you can be the envy of the league. What do I mean by that? List all the setup men and special situation relievers, and take the ones available for a dollar at the end of the draft. You may want to save some dollars so you can bid three or four in the end game and control which pitchers you get. Still, there will be plenty to pick from during dollar days. Many of these guys become closers or inherit the role due to injury, or become a part of closer committees. Spend a moderate amount (you may want to spend more in an AL league than in an NL-only format) on a frontline starter and follow with smaller amounts to round out your staff. Every year pitchers go undrafted and become the hot commodity of the free agent pool. Everyone kicks themselves in the rear that they did not draft him for one dollar and had to fight to pick him up later in the season. Since saves are a key category, you will usually want two closers. However, you could also try to land one solid closer and then look to get saves out of setup men that inherit a closer's job. Getting two may cost a lot this year, and could be tough especially in keeper leagues where most closers are already on rosters.
With that said, here is an example of what a pitching budget could look like this year.
| Starter 1 |
15 |
| Starter 2 |
8 |
| Starter 3 |
3 |
| Starter 4 or Setup 4 |
1 |
| Setup 1 |
1 |
| Setup 2 |
1 |
| Setup 3 |
1 |
| Closer 1 |
25 |
| Closer 2 |
5 |
Remember, this is assuming no true starting pitching studs. You could certainly spend more on pitching if I can identify a top notch starter and get him for a reasonable price. You might then swap your budgets for second base and your #1 starter, for example.
Hitting numbers will vary depending on where you choose to concentrate on your main man. You may wind up with middle infielders for one dollar if you choose an elite OF slugger, or one-dollar outfielders if you choose a top-notch 3B. In that manner, you must choose your poison. You have to do your homework to make wise choices. You also need to pick minor league selections that are ready to help this year in areas that you are weak in at the end of the draft.
With that said here is a typical batting budget for the upcoming season.
| Catcher 1 |
1 |
| Catcher 2 |
1 |
| First Base |
15 |
| Second Base |
30 |
| Shortstop |
40 |
| Third Base |
15 |
| Corner Infielder |
11 |
| Middle Infielder |
9 |
| Outfield 1 |
20 |
| Outfield 2 |
15 |
| Outfield 3 |
15 |
| Outfield 4 |
15 |
| Outfield 5 |
5 |
| Utility |
8 |
Of course, you can switch the numbers around to the positions you want. You also must adjust during the draft. If you pay $18 for a player you were hoping to land for $15, then the three-dollar difference has to be compensated for at another position. Similarly, if you do not want to spend more than $30 for one player and would rather spread the risk, then take that money and redistribute it to another position.
As mentioned earlier, there has been a trend to spend $60 or less on pitching and $200 on hitting with the closer situations more volatile these days and the lack of quality starters. The above budget allots $60 for pitching and $200 for hitting. If you would like to use 52/208 or 80/180 split, it is simple to apply. Just adjust the dollar amounts from your hitting and pitching budgets where you think the extra dollars are needed. Say, take $10 from each closer and apply $10 to two other positions in hitting. Or you could leave it in a "reserve" pool for greater flexibility, so that if your budget is $15 for first base and you bid $20, then you take the extra five from your reserve instead of changing another budget spot.
Remember to be flexible and have your homework done. The above dollar values are just an example to help you prepare. One thing is certain: on draft day, things won't follow your script 100%, and an owner needs to be ready to shift to plan "B" or even "C".
Good luck in your drafts,
Fantasy Baseball Hub
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